https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/election-day.html
In the recent midterm elections, the Democrats have gained control of the House, while the Republicans have maintained control of the Senate. Partisanship in America is still clearly seen because the Democrats were able to take the seats from Republicans in districts that have educated voters. The Democratic win the House was not certain, but they were able to win key races in Iowa, Texas, Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, New York, and Illinois to gain the majority. Republicans were able to win the Senate in key races with Mike Braun in Indiana, Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, Ted Cruz in Texas, Kevin Kramer in Tennessee, Jack Rosen in Nevada, and Josh Hawley in Missouri. This election has become historic because the candidates chosen have been the most diverse in US history. For example, Jared Polis was “the first openly gay man elected as governor,” Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib were “the first Muslim women elected to Congress,” and Sharice Davids and Deb Haaland were “the first Native American women voted in to the House.” The biggest upset of the Congressional elections has been in Oklahoma, where “Kendra Horn, a Democrat, defeated the Republican incumbent Steve Russell in Oklahoma’s Fifth District [...] Republicans had held — until now — every congressional seat.” As Congress is the lawmaking institution of the US, it is important to recognize that elections are important in determining the possible changes that may occur in American society.
1. Do you believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs was in reaction to Trump or more so realignment?
2. Will centrists play a greater role in elections in the future, or will parties continue to grow and dominate the political landscape?
3. How do you believe the results of the midterms will impact Trump and the 2020 election?
Joshua Ishimoto
ReplyDelete1. Large scale realignment is a relatively rare event. When it does happen t is marked in the history books. This midterm, while important, was not the blue wave that Democrats counted on. It was simply a correction, the same thing you see in stock markets. Furthermore, the fact that Republicans gained seats in the Senate says that Trump's base is still a loyal and powerful voting block. The fact that Republicans lost the House was because Trump was simply really hated in suburbs due to his numerous policies, especially those concerning immigration.
2. I definitely feel that centrists will grow in power and popularity with time. Democrats, in order to take any majority in the Senate and win the White House need to appeal to the independents that Trump got. That is the political reality and so as the Republican Party goes further to the right, rather than heading to the left, Democrats will have to make a similar shift to stay within range of those voters.
3. Trump, once he realizes that there is such a thing as limits of presidential power by Congress, will continue to rant and appeal to his base. However, as with all other presidents, the House will provide enhanced oversight of his policies. It might come slowly, but eventually he will become a president just trying to act the way he wants to. And as we all know, a president will is ineffective and can't work something out with Congress shall face a very hard reelection.
Clara Kennedy
ReplyDelete1. I believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs was more of a response to Donald Trump than it was a full realignment. The Democrats, although they took control of the house, still did not win control of the Senate. While the election was significant in shaping Congress, it did not mimic that of a realignment in that the demographics voting for each party did not change significantly. Since it was mainly the turnout that increased, it is likely a response to the current political situation and highly competitive races fueled by the current political climate.
2. Yes, I think that centrists will grow in power. As the parties become more and more polarized, it becomes less and less likely that people will vote for candidates from other parties. As a result, centrist voters will be the most important to win over in elections in order for candidates to get a plurality or majority of the vote.
3. I believe that the results of the midterm will slightly impede Trump's presidency. Although Democrats only have control in the House, the House has considerable power in oversight of the executive branch. As a result, I believe that Trump will find far more resistance in Congress and will find himself under greater scrutiny following this election. In regard to the 2020 election, I think that Democrats will still be moved to vote in a similar fashion to 2018 due to the extremity of Trump and the Republican Party, as well as the desire for greater change than that seen in the 2018 midterm.
1. I believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs is a reaction to Donald Trump rather than realignment. Realignment is an event that is quite rare and often is connected to a major change in power in Congress. The fact that many people have already shown their negative view of Trump it isn't surprising that there would be such a shift in voter turnout. Also as we see that the only real change was the voter turnout it is most likely a result of the strong opinions of Trump.
ReplyDelete2. I believe that centrists will continue to grow in power. Because the two main parties are increasingly polarized there are more people that are left without a political party. So as the number of centrist voters grows there will be an increase in the importance placed on winning the favor of this group.
3. I believe that the results of this midterm will start to show Trump that he can no longer continue with whatever he wants as his party no longer controls all of Congress. So in the future, Trump will face growing resistance from Congress which will make it difficult for him to continue without making concessions. I believe that the 2020 election will follow a similar result as the 2018 midterms as there will most likely be a greater voter turnout in response to Donald Trump's presidency. When it comes to the 2020 election, Trump will have a very difficult path to reelection.
1) I think voting in the suburbs was more Trump because usually the midterms after the election are against the president which is basically against Trump. Realignment is something really big and I don't think that is what is happening here. I think it means that more democrats are voting because they don't like Trumps policies and therefore, they will vote to take over the House.
ReplyDelete2) I think that parties will become more and more polarized over time so centrists may start to be more popular because it is the really only way to stop polarization and how the government cannot do anything because of the polarization of this country. Therefore, I feel that centrists will become more and more popular.
3) I think Trump and the Republican party may have more trouble getting their own legislation passed. Trump may have to veto bills more often and our government will have even a harder time working together because we have both democrats and Republicans in the legislative branch. It means that there is more resistance against Trump and may lead to a more liberal government.
1) I think the way that the suburbs have voted is more due to the way that Trump has acted. The members of the suburbs are most likely quite angry about his rhetoric and un-patriotic actions. Thus they have begun to retaliate by voting against him and his party.
ReplyDelete2) I believe that centrist will begin to play a larger and larger role. This is because as the parties become more polarized it will be easier to see where people stand. If we know where everyone stands it will become very important to win the centrist vote.
3) I think that the 2018 elections are a precursor of the 2020 elections. It seems that the people have begun to hate the Republican agenda and it showed in their voting patterns. This will most likely continue to occur into 2020.
I believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs was mainly in reaction to Trump, as his actions have prompted much backlash against the Republican party and shifted some moderates and fiscal conservatives closer to the Democratic Party.
ReplyDeleteAs our political parties become more and more polarized, some centrists will be pushed towards more moderate third parties. Though this would not cause many third party candidates to be elected, it could show the main two parties that they need to be more moderate.
With a much more diverse Congress, these results could prompt more voter participation among minorities and young people in the 2020 elections. These groups also tend to be more liberal, which hurt Trump's chances for reelection in 2020 and increase the Democrats' chances of winning more seats.
1. I believe that the shift in voting was a combination of both a trend of realignment and a negative reaction to Trump. I don't believe either of these ideas by themselves dramatically did anything to truly change the course of the midterms, but I certainly believe they had some affect in the change in the House.
ReplyDelete2. We are getting more and more polarized politically so it doesn't make much sense for centrists to be a large part in the election processes. Parties will continue enforcing their ideas upon the media which will inevitably lead to an echo chamber of political beliefs that will ultimately create a constant trend of increased polarization and party influence on voters.
3. With the House now controlled by Democrats, it will be a lot harder for Trump to perform some of his radical policies that may not align with the interests of the general public. Although I believe this could be a temporary downfall in terms of not being able to pass policy, I believe this will actually help Trump as it will prevent him from going too far into the negative spotlight which could be detrimental to the 2020 election.
1. I think the voting results in the midterms are a result of retrospective voting done to counteract the mistakes of Trump.
ReplyDelete2. I think centrists already play a large part in elections. Candidates from both parties need their support to push them to victory. However, I think parties will still have a big impact in politics.
3. I think the midterm results are the beginning of the 'blue wave' that will happen in 2020. Democrats are beginning to have more of an impact. It will also prevent Trump from passing some of his more radical policies and legislature.
1. Do you believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs was in reaction to Trump or more so realignment?
ReplyDeleteI belive it was a reaction to Trump. He has made some bold actions that has a negative effect in a lot of Republicans.
2. Will centrists play a greater role in elections in the future, or will parties continue to grow and dominate the political landscape?
I think that centrists will continue to grow, as more political partisanship has occurred so political parties are less and less important/ necessary. Centrists will be more and more important to win over elections.
3. How do you believe the results of the midterms will impact Trump and the 2020 election?
I think that this midterm means that the 2020 election will yield more democrats, due to the larger impact that they have. Trump has such strong beliefs that many democrats was to stop from being past in legislation.
-Tovia Sobel
1. Do you believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs was in reaction to Trump or more so realignment?
ReplyDeleteI believe that most voting is a reaction to what voters do not like in the other party. Trump has certainly turned off some moderates, converted others, but most importantly, energized and motivated left leaning citizens to vote against him in this election. This election had record high voter turnout rates as a result.
2. Will centrists play a greater role in elections in the future, or will parties continue to grow and dominate the political landscape?
I believe that centrists have always played a huge role in the political landscape. I believe that the number of moderates has not changed much, but rather, the current political landscape puts them in an interesting dilemma. I believe that the current polarization is a phase, and we will eventually return to normalcy, as all major polarizing periods in our past have returned to.
3. How do you believe the results of the midterms will impact Trump and the 2020 election?
I believe it most certainly will. The goals have shifted for Trump, and the midterm results can hurt Trump immensely if gridlock is achieved. The Republican party may be forced to adopt new strategies.
1. I think that the shift in voting in the suburbs was a reaction to Trump. Some moderates may have disliked Trump and decided to instead vote for Democrats.
ReplyDelete2. I think that the parties will grow more polarized and then the centrists will grow with those who do not like the increased polarization. This will give the centrists more more in the elections since they would probably have more ticket splitting and swing votes.
3. I think the results of the midterms will slow Trump and lead to more gridlock.
1. Do you believe that the shift in voting in the suburbs was in reaction to Trump or more so realignment?
ReplyDeleteI think it's a reaction to Trump
2. Will centrists play a greater role in elections in the future, or will parties continue to grow and dominate the political landscape?
There's very few people who are true "centrists", so I doubt they will change anything in the political landscape
3. How do you believe the results of the midterms will impact Trump and the 2020 election?
He's going to have a hard time passing a new budget
1. I believe that this is a reaction to Trump. His actions have motivated many left people to vote against the Republican party. He may have also convinced moderates to move back left. It is not a realignment because the Senate is still controlled by the Republicans.
ReplyDelete2. I think that although independents are growing in popularity, they will never truly be a third "party". Since majority of citizens are on one side, candidates might feel pressured to allude to at least one side to gain an advantage and secure votes. Being centrist as a candidate might not be hugely beneficial because there will not be any people that are for sure voters.
3. I think Trump will have a more difficult time passing new legislation. Since it is a divided government, there will likely be a lot of resistance and gridlock. Trump can always pass executive orders to get things done.
1. I think that Trump definitely had an influence. Trump's personality is not very well-liked and there are a lot of negative things said about him that it would not be at all surprising that this would shift people's voting trends.
ReplyDelete2. I think that parties are getting more polarized, so there will be more and more centrists going forward. Centrists are, of course, the swing vote, so they will always play a crucial role no matter what. But based on our two-party system and the electoral college, no one other than a member of the two main parties will ever really get into a huge position of power, so parties will not be losing power anytime soon.
3. I think that 2020 will be an anti-Trump election regardless of the outcome of the midterms. However, more control from the Democrats could be good for Trump because it will cause others to vote against Democrats.
1. I believe that Trump has had an impact on the shift in voting. After Trump was elected, many people were not satisfied with what he has done so far, causing people to vote for the opposing party. Not only this, but Trump is a very polarizing person.
ReplyDelete2. I believe that centrists will play a huge role in elections in the future because of the increasing polarization of the parties. These centrists will act as swing votes to determine the outcome of each and every election.
3. By 2020, there will most likely be an anti-Trump election. This is not due to the outcome of the midterm, as it is only a foreshadowing as to what is to come.
1. I don't believe it was realignment at all, I think it can be attributed as a reaction to Trump and how he has done in office these past few years. Many aren't happy with the job he has done.
ReplyDelete2. With the recent part polarization, centrists are more important as ever. Many don't agree with the leftist socialist shift of the Democratic party and many don't want to associate with the recent right shift of the GOP.
3. Trump will run into a lot of trouble with the house, and it is unlikely he will pass any new legislation.